VARSITY SHIFTS

VOL. I, NO. 1 • NOVEMBER 28, 2025 • PRICE: FREE

Understanding the Nature of Athlete Transfers

By Marco Gandola, Kate Gilliam, Gillian Schriever

The NIL Era: A Game Changer

IN 2021, COLLEGE ATHLETES GAINED NEW FREEDOM AND MOBILITY.

In July 2021, the NCAA adopted Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policy, fundamentally changing college athletics. The transfer portal exploded.

Within months, thousands of athletes entered the portal. The traditional "sit-out" year was waived, creating a free-agency market unlike anything seen before in collegiate sports history. This shift fundamentally altered team building strategies across the nation.

College Football Transfer Portal

Figure 1. Year-by-year evolution of entries into the College Football transfer portal following the NIL policy shift.

NCAA Division I Transfers (All Sports)

Figure 2. Aggregate transfer trends across NCAA Division I sports, highlighting changes in athlete mobility.

Rising Insights

Not only did more athletes transfer, but they began transferring earlier in their careers.

Data shows a significant shift from upperclassmen seeking grad transfers to underclassmen seeking immediate playing time. Sophomores now make up the largest share of portal entrants, driven by the desire for early exposure and NIL opportunities.

Cumulative Transfer Growth: Accelerating Post-NIL

Figure 3. Cumulative transfer volume over time, showing the dramatic acceleration in transfer rates following the July 2021 NIL policy implementation.

Transfers by Class Year: Pre-NIL vs Post-NIL

Figure 4. Distribution of transfers across class years, comparing Pre-NIL and Post-NIL periods showing the shift toward earlier transfers.

The Transfer Signal Turned Green Earlier

The New Transfer Timeline

Post-NIL, sophomore year became the new peak transfer period, with transfers surging 154% as athlete mobility shifted dramatically earlier in college careers. Athletic departments must now focus retention efforts on underclassmen, not just upperclassmen.

This "green light" for early transfers means coaches can no longer assume players will develop over four years. Roster management has become a year-round job, with retention strategies needing to start as early as freshman year orientation.

Figure 5. Comparison of transfer timing patterns before and after NIL implementation.

Pre-NIL Pattern: Transfers concentrated in Junior (35%) and Senior (30%) years—the traditional pattern where athletes waited until upperclassman status to seek new opportunities.

Post-NIL Pattern: Sophomores now dominate (38%), representing a fundamental shift where transfers happen 2+ years earlier than before. The sophomore "orange light" now burns brightest.

⚡ Key Insight for Athletic Directors: Retention conversations and NIL strategies must begin in sophomore year, not junior/senior year. The window for intervention has moved earlier in the eligibility timeline.

Transfer Portal Playbook

"Rethinking the Game Plan"

Pre-NIL Playing Time Coaching Change Post-NIL Collectives NIL $$$ Marketplace Opportunities Brand Exposure

Figure 6. Pre-NIL transfers followed simple, role-based routes, while NIL introduced complex, money and exposure-driven paths through the "playbook."

Pre-NIL Era

Post-NIL Era

Sideline Analysis

Coaching adjustments in the transfer and NIL era

Build NIL Infrastructure

Develop collectives, educate athletes, and provide transparent NIL support so players don't feel they need to leave to find financial footing elsewhere.

Early Communication

Clarify role, development plan, and expectations early, before dissatisfaction builds into a transfer decision.

Brand-Building Support

Offer media training, social strategy, and tools for personal branding so players can grow their profiles without needing to jump programs.

Roster Flexibility

Plan for mid-year exits and arrivals, using flexible scholarships and depth charts that assume higher transfer churn in the NIL era.